PIMO-JUOS/ARNO4/PSSPS-ACHY
Scenario model
Current ecosystem state
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Management practices/drivers
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- Transition A More details
- Transition B More details
- Transition A More details
- Transition B More details
- Restoration pathway A More details
- Transition A More details
- Transition B More details
- Transition A More details
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No transition or restoration pathway between the selected states has been described
Target ecosystem state
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Description
The Reference State 1.0 is representative of the natural range of variability under pristine conditions. This Reference State has four general community phases: an old-growth woodland phase, a shrub-herbaceous phase, an immature woodland phase, and an infilled tree phase. State dynamics are maintained by interactions between climatic patterns and disturbance regimes. Negative feedbacks enhance ecosystem resilience and contribute to the stability of the state. These include the presence of all structural and functional groups, low fine fuel loads, and retention of organic matter and nutrients. Plant community phase changes are primarily driven by fire, periodic drought, and/or insect or disease attack. Management should focus on maintaining high species diversity of desired species to promote site resiliency.
Submodel
Description
This state is similar to the Reference State 1.0, with four general community phases: an old-growth woodland phase, a shrub-herbaceous phase, an immature tree phase, and an infilled woodland phase. Ecological function has not changed, however the resiliency of the state has been reduced by the presence of non-native species. These non-natives, particularly cheatgrass, can be highly flammable and promote fire where historically fire had been infrequent. Negative feedbacks enhance ecosystem resilience and contribute to the stability of the state. These include the presence of all structural and functional groups, low fine fuel loads and retention of organic matter and nutrients. Positive feedbacks decrease ecosystem resilience and stability of the state. These include the non-natives’ high seed output, persistent seed bank, rapid growth rate, ability to cross pollinate, and adaptations for seed dispersal. Fires within this community with the small amount of non-native annual species present are likely still small and patchy due to low fuel loads. This fire type will create a plant community mosaic that will include all/most of the following community phases within this state.
Submodel
Description
This state has two community phases. The community phases are dominated by Utah juniper and singleleaf pinyon. Community phase 1 has a canopy cover of trees greater than 25 percent with understory species still present. Community phase 2 has a canopy cover of 30 to 50 percent cover of Utah juniper and singleleaf pinyon. Trees are at maximal height and upper crowns may be flat-topped or rounded. Understory vegetation is sparse due to increasing shade and competition from trees. Management would include thinning of trees and possible seeding of understory species.
Submodel
Description
This State has one community phase and is characterized by the dominance of annual non-native species such as cheatgrass and tansy mustard. Rabbitbrush may dominate the overstory.
Submodel
Description
This State has one community phase dominated by trees. Abiotic factors including soil redistribution and erosion, soil temperature, soil crusting and sealing are primary drivers of ecological condition within this state. Soil moisture, soil nutrients and soil organic matter distribution and cycling are severely altered due to degraded soil surface conditions.
Utah juniper and singleleaf pinyon dominate the overstory and herbaceous species may be present in trace amount particularly under tree canopies. Regeneration of trees or herbaceous species is not evident.
Submodel
Mechanism
Trigger: Introduction of non-native annual species.
Slow variables: Over time the annual non-native plants will increase within the community.
Threshold: Any amount of introduced non-native species causes an immediate decrease in the resilience of the site. Annual non-native species cannot be easily removed from the system and have the potential to significantly alter disturbance regimes from their historic range of variation.
Mechanism
Trigger: Time and a lack of disturbance allow trees to dominate site resources; may be coupled with inappropriate herbivory that favors shrub and tree dominance.
Slow variables: Over time the abundance and size of trees will increase.
Threshold: Pinyon and juniper canopy cover is greater than 30 percent. Little understory vegetation remains due to competition with trees for site resources.
Mechanism
Trigger: Time and a lack of disturbance allow trees to dominate site resources; may be coupled with inappropriate grazing management that favors shrub and tree dominance.
Slow variables: Over time the abundance and size of trees will increase.
Threshold: Singleleaf pinyon and Utah juniper canopy cover is greater than 30%. Little understory vegetation remains due to competition with trees for site resources.
Mechanism
Manual or mechanical thinning of trees coupled with seeding. Probability of success is highest from community phase 3.1.
Mechanism
Trigger: Canopy fire reduces the pinyon and juniper overstory and facilitates the annual non-native species in the understory to dominate the site.
Slow variables: Over time, cover, production and seed bank of annual non-native species increases.
Threshold: Loss of deep-rooted perennial bunchgrasses and shrubs changes temporal and spatial nutrient capture and cycling within the community. Increased canopy cover of trees allows severe stand-replacing fire. The increased seed bank of non-native, annual species responds positively to post-fire conditions facilitating the transition to an Annual State.
Mechanism
Trigger: Time allows for an increase in tree canopy cover and greatly reduces cover of all understory species. Bare ground greatly increases, allowing for soil movement.
Slow variables: Increasing water and wind erosion coupled with lack of cover changes site soil properties: temperature, infiltration rates, and levels of organic matter no longer support reference vegetation.
Threshold: Soil redistribution and erosion is significant and linked to vegetation mortality evidenced by pedestalling and burying of herbaceous species and / or lack of recruitment in the interspaces.
Mechanism
Trigger: Catastrophic fire or multiple fires.
Slow variables: Bare ground interspaces become large and connected; water flow paths long and continuous; understory sparse.
Threshold: Soil redistribution and erosion is significant and linked to vegetation mortality evidenced by pedestalling and burying of herbaceous species and / or lack of recruitment in the interspaces.
Model keys
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The Ecosystem Dynamics Interpretive Tool is an information system framework developed by the USDA-ARS Jornada Experimental Range, USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service, and New Mexico State University.