Thin Breaks
Scenario model
Current ecosystem state
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Management practices/drivers
Select a transition or restoration pathway
- Transition T1A More details
- Restoration pathway R2A More details
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No transition or restoration pathway between the selected states has been described
Target ecosystem state
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Description
The Reference State represents the best estimate of the natural range of variability that dominated the dynamics of the Thin Breaks ecological site prior to European settlement. This site, in Reference condition, is a mix of grasses, grass-likes, forbs, shrubs, and tree species. Wet and dry climatic cycles, fire, no fire, and encroachment of junipers are the major drivers between plant communities. In general, grazing pressure is limited because of limited accessibility; however, on flatter slopes, livestock will utilize the site for shade and loafing. Favorable growing conditions occur during the spring and the warm months of June through August. Today a similar state can be found in areas where proper livestock use has occurred.
Submodel
Description
The Conifer State occurs when eastern redcedar or Rocky Mountain juniper encroach onto the site and become the dominant species. As the juniper becomes established, the herbaceous component declines and more bare ground is exposed. This negative feedback creates the condition for continuing encroachment. As bare ground increases, juniper establishes more readily.
Submodel
Mechanism
Over time with no fire and encroachment of juniper, the Reference State will transition to the Conifer State (2.0). Junipers and shrubs will eventually replace the grasses, forbs, and shrubs found in the Reference State. This transition is most likely to occur through the Shrubs/Green Ash-Juniper Plant Community (1.2).
Mechanism
If the site is not too degraded, and many of the native grasses, forbs, and shrubs are still present in the plant community, a stand removing fire will eliminate the juniper cover and allow for a transition back to the Reference State (1.0). Depending on the remnant native herbaceous and shrub community this may be a relatively fast transition or a slow successional process where non-native forbs and grasses could potentially invade.
Model keys
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The Ecosystem Dynamics Interpretive Tool is an information system framework developed by the USDA-ARS Jornada Experimental Range, USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service, and New Mexico State University.