Shallow Sandy Pediment 13-15 P.Z. JUOS/ARTRW8/ACHY-HECO26
Scenario model
Current ecosystem state
Select a state
Management practices/drivers
Select a transition or restoration pathway
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Transition T1A
Trigger: Introduction of non-native annual species.
More details
Slow variables: Over time the annual non-native plants will increase within the community.
Threshold: Any amount of introduced non-native species causes an immediate decrease in the resilience of the site. Annual non-native species cannot be easily removed from the system and have the potential to significantly alter disturbance regimes from their historic range of variation. -
Transition T1B
Trigger: Time and a lack of disturbance allow trees to dominate site resources; might be coupled with inappropriate herbivory that favors shrub and tree dominance.
More details
Slow variables: Over time the abundance and size of trees will increase.
Threshold: Juniper canopy cover is greater than 25 percent. Little understory vegetation remains due to competition with trees for site resources. -
Transition T2A
Trigger: Time and a lack of disturbance allow trees to dominate site resources; might be coupled with inappropriate grazing management that favors shrub and tree dominance.
More details
Slow variables: Over time the abundance and size of trees will increase.
Threshold: Utah juniper canopy cover is greater than 25 percent. Little understory vegetation remains due to competition with trees for site resources. -
Restoration pathway R3A
This restoration is a result of manual or mechanical thinning of trees coupled with seeding. Probability of success is highest from community phase 3.1.
More details -
No transition or restoration pathway between the selected states has been described
Target ecosystem state
Select a state
Description
The Reference State 1.0 represents the natural range of variability of this site under pristine conditions. The reference state has four general community phases: an old-growth phase, a shrub-herbaceous phase, an immature tree phase, and an infilled tree phase. State dynamics are maintained by interactions between climatic patterns and disturbance regimes. Negative feedbacks enhance ecosystem resilience and contribute to the stability of the state. These include the presence of all structural and functional groups, low fine fuel loads, and retention of organic matter and nutrients. Plant community phase changes are primarily driven by: (a) fire, (b) periodic drought, or (3) insect or disease attack. Fires within this community are infrequent and likely small and patchy due to low fuel loads; for example, single tree death due to lightning strike. This fire type will create a plant community mosaic that will include all/most of the following community phases within this state.
Submodel
Description
This state is similar to the Reference State 1.0, with four general community phases: an old-growth tree phase, a shrub-herbaceous phase, an immature tree phase, and an infilled tree phase. Ecological function has not changed, however the resiliency of the state has been reduced by the presence of non-native species. These non-natives, particularly cheatgrass, can be highly flammable and promote fire where historically fire had been infrequent. Negative feedbacks enhance ecosystem resilience and contribute to the stability of the state. These include the presence of all structural and functional groups, low fine fuel loads and retention of organic matter and nutrients. Positive feedbacks decrease ecosystem resilience and stability of the state. These include the non-natives’ high seed output, persistent seed bank, rapid growth rate, ability to cross pollinate, and adaptations for seed dispersal. Fires within this community with the small amount of non-native annual species present are likely still small and patchy due to low fuel loads. This fire type will create a plant community mosaic that will include all/most of the following community phases within this state.
Submodel
Description
This state has two community phases that are characterized by the dominance of Utah juniper in the overstory. This state is identifiable by greater than 25 percent cover of Utah juniper. This stand exhibits a mixed age class. Older trees are at maximal height and upper crowns might be flat-topped or rounded. Younger trees are typically cone- or pyramidal-shaped. Understory vegetation is sparse due to increasing shade and nutrient competition from trees.
Submodel
Mechanism
Trigger: Introduction of non-native annual species.
Slow variables: Over time the annual non-native plants will increase within the community.
Threshold: Any amount of introduced non-native species causes an immediate decrease in the resilience of the site. Annual non-native species cannot be easily removed from the system and have the potential to significantly alter disturbance regimes from their historic range of variation.
Mechanism
Trigger: Time and a lack of disturbance allow trees to dominate site resources; might be coupled with inappropriate herbivory that favors shrub and tree dominance.
Slow variables: Over time the abundance and size of trees will increase.
Threshold: Juniper canopy cover is greater than 25 percent. Little understory vegetation remains due to competition with trees for site resources.
Mechanism
Trigger: Time and a lack of disturbance allow trees to dominate site resources; might be coupled with inappropriate grazing management that favors shrub and tree dominance.
Slow variables: Over time the abundance and size of trees will increase.
Threshold: Utah juniper canopy cover is greater than 25 percent. Little understory vegetation remains due to competition with trees for site resources.
Model keys
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